Project duration: 02/2024 to 11/2025

The goal of the SUR project is to support urban capacities in Ukraine to minimize cascading effects in the field of sopply infrastructure and strengthen its resielience.  As part of this, a risk analysis is being conducted.

Risk analysis considers risk as a combination of impact and probability, based on vulnerability, exposure and hazard. Hazards such as extreme weather events, environmental changes or military attacks involve uncertainties due to spatial and temporal changes. The focus is on vulnerability, particularly in view of the military threat posed by missiles and artillery, especially in frontline areas. The Council of the EU (2024) emphasizes that resilient infrastructures are crucial for maintaining vital functions. Attacks on these infrastructures have far-reaching, interdependent effects.

The planned activities consist of 4 work packages:

WP 1: Development of a conceptual risk assessment framework

WP 2: Development of a framework for analysing service disruptions of supply infrastructure

WP 3: Training and capacity-building measures

WP 4: Analysis of service disruptions of supply infrastructure

In WP1, a conceptual framework for risk assessment will be developed based on international and national literature and an analysis of the current policy framework. The aim is to produce a manual for risk assessment, illustrated with clear examples. This handbook will serve as a guideline for disaster risk management and will be useful for international development cooperation as well as for Ukrainian municipalities.

In WP2, an assessment framework is being developed that focuses on the cascading chains of supply disruptions. The aim is to analyze the impact of disruptions in one infrastructure sector on other sectors. This will be done through a desk-top study, literature review and expert interviews to identify interactions between sectors and determine resilience measures.

WP3 involves surveying the training needs of stakeholders in the affected cities through an online questionnaire. On this basis, tailor-made trainings will be developed covering topics such as resilient recovery planning, cascading chain models and cost-benefit assessments. The training courses are intended to promote the implementation of disaster prevention measures and the revision of existing plans.

In WP4, data on infrastructure locations will be collected to assess the criticality of infrastructure services. This includes the identification of cascading effects and resilience measures as well as the visualization of the results in map form. Finally, the results will be presented and discussed with local stakeholders to derive recommendations for action.